I am not what I consider a great stock advisor. When the bubble burst a few years back, I held and didn't panic. History shows that I should have panicked, and I've been skittish ever since. I say this, because for some reason several people have asked me in the last couple of days if I think it's too late to buy Google stock and I don't have a real answer to that. I'm holding what I have and I'm confident.
But because of Google's deal with them, I think a nice high risk-high gain investment is Sun Microsystems, who's stock has risen from about $3.75 to $4.25 in a short period of time. It is very early to see how this potential disruption to Microsoft's OS and Office positions plays out. And I'm the last person to ask about the financial analysis. My favorite investments have been historically on paying attention to companies who appear to me in a position to sustain growth for a prolonged period of time--at least two years. I've done well with this, over the years, despite the fact that it blew up in my face back in 2000.
I think that Sun is a particularly well-positioned company. I am impressed with Jonathan Schwartz and feel the McNeely has allowed him the space to run operations, and I'm impressed by Tim Bray and other senior players whose competence and character are above dispute. What has concerned me about Sun is that it was struggling to find a vision and direction. When I interviewed him for Naked Conversations, Schwartz had made it sound like the future of the company was wrapped in Sun's Solaris OS and it's Open Source capabilities. At the time, it made little sense to me. With Google it now makes a great deal.
This deal gives Sun what it needed the most--a clear direction. I think that makes it's low-priced stock a good speculative investment. Yes, there is high risk, in the stock. But the counter-balance seems to me to be high gain.
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