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Nov 22, 2005

Comments

BJ Fogg

Ten years from today, my community in California (Healdsburg) won't be much different--just a lot more touristy. The city has capped growth, so we'll still have about 12,000 folks in town. But the surrounding areas will develop dramatically. The California oaks are being torn down to build office buildings and apartments. In ten years I won't be able to wander through untouched countryside, not know -- or caring -- who owns the land. One hour north of San Francisco, I can still do this today. That's gonna be gone soon.

Evan Erwin

In 10 years we will have finally had time to look back at the mistake in Iraq.

We will finally get a true memorial for those who lost their lives on 9/11/01.

We will have found a way to use computers and our organic systems (brain, mechanical limbs) together.

Windows will be no more, at least in how we think about it. Online services will be such a huge force that to not use them will seem weird. Browsers will be more important than OSes.

However, in 10 years we will NOT have our flying car.

I want my flying car :(

Lance Dutson

chrome, lots of chrome.

And Windows for the toaster.

Juan Pablo Tapia

The third world, Latin America as a representation of two utopias, the marxissm, and free market: Cuba and Chile, for example. Every country will enjoy the discover of the end of the lost world, raise from the beggining of a new country worldwide rol playing.

The delayed southamerican labs.

/pd

Shel asks "what do you think the world will look like ten years from today ?"

Wheww.. Very opened ended. Let me take a shot at this :)-

1) 2015 - minority reports become reality !! - you stroke a key, somebody somewhere knows.
2) V6 networks being deployed. Every device locked into the net. My fridge is hunger for some more milk. Why ? The milk bag (barcoded) moved out of the fridge and into the garbage bin. Yeah all foo is RFID !!
3) India/china doing targetting and replenshiment service, using IT centeric resources. America and the G8/EU doing enforements within the paradigm of scm and trade.
4) Everyone is connected via a platform called as the internet.
5) the united states of the world will be formed.
6) War will be in electronic form ( all forms of war)
7) Live video casting via razor type cell phones
8) Petabyte data center can be fitted into a container and shipped via truck/ship/air to anywhere required.
9) I'll be precisly 10 years older!
10) You will look stupid asking this question - and look stupider for answering !!

Tara 'Miss Rogue' Hunt

I wish I knew.

I guess what I want it to look like is:

- the tools we are developing today are accessible and usable to the non-programmer
- we can find every photo easily online ;)
- borders are broken down entirely - people can move easily between continents, countries, etc. with one identity (their own) and the chaos originally caused by this has subsided.
- everyone has the same opportunities, largely mitigated by the above
- Art is back on the top of everyone's priorities...we've discovered our legacy is best served by creative expression
- We no longer use guns to communicate internationally, we use collaboration, creative planning and patience

I know, it's uber utopic, but, hey...it's thanksgiving, right?

Gautam

ten years from now?

I see people far apart and yet closer,

I see more diversity and less understanding

I see people talking and not communicating

I see organizations still trying to become communities and still failing

regards
Gautam

Chris

The majority of the population in developed countries will be focusing the internet on their personal productivity (as opposed to only the early adopters now). They will be using the equivalent of RSS feeds and social bookmarking to find strong partners to match their interests. This productivity will result in a fantastic force of solo entrepeneurs pulling off impressive stuff.

The Edd

Ten years from now?

Globally -

The Free Market Yuan will hold a 3-1 edge over the US dollar and a 3-2 edge over the Euro.

America will teeter on the verge of a depression to rival that of the Roosevelt era, but without leadership to see us through - due to the primary system of presidential election.

Korea will be reunited under the auspices of the North due to security reasons.

In America -

No presidential candidate running under a centrist banner will receive more than 10% of the parties' primary votes.

Corporate greed in ten years will make Enron and Tyco look like kids stealing candy from each other.

The government's response wouldn't even be a comparative slap on the wrist.

There will be more spanish speaking people in the upper midwest than english speaking ones - and buisnesses will start phasing out english speaking service employees.

We'll be but 5 years from the second civil war. Right Wing Nut Jobs and Left Wing Liberal Weiners (all of whom seem to be rich) versus the rest of us ingrateful curs.

Locally in Milwaukee -

We'll have the biggest race riot of our age - and it won't be the black community.

Barrett will still be mayor.

The Brewers will have been to the NLCS, if not the Series.

The Packers of this age will make the Packers of the 70's look like all stars.

This city will make sure the rest of the nation understands the phrase - Hypersegregation.

God willing, I won't be here for any of this.

Technologically? Who knows? We won't be able to afford any of it.

Colm Smyth

I think The Edd's mixture of pragmatism and dystopianism is probably not too far from the truth.

Adding to that:
- energy politics will cause further wars and (finally) some properly funded research and rather late changes in consumer behaviour
- broadband and the internet will 1) unify personal & commercial communications and 2) disintermediate or "distribute" creation, supply and demand of infotainment
- the global economics of manufacturing in today's poorer ("eastern") countries will change before even poorer economies are ready to catch the opportunity, resulting in a rise in global prices
- we will crack AIDs and dent many forms of cancer (but neither will be cheap enough for most of us to benefit); the rise of super-bacteria will force us to resort to more toxic antibiotics
- although technology will enable us to know more through sharing, many western countries will be forced to import intelligence (people and patents) due to the lack of funding for public education (including the mistaken belief that non-native speaking citizens and foreign nationals can be integrated without special effort)

I've tried to answer all of Shel's questions to date (1-4) in a recent post over on my blog. I hope more people try to do so, here and elsewhere; it's going to be interesting for us each to try, and educational to read the answers of others.

JosephDP

Gene Rodenberry, as part of his Star Trek universe, had the early part of the 21st century racked by war and catastrophe, then saved through the invention of the warp drive and intervention of the Vulcans. I fear the former, and have little hope for the latter. James Blish, in his story "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep" shows a future time where there has been an elimination of the middle class. High Tech cottage industry churns out everything from genetically engineered marvels to amazing gadgets, while the proprietors of these home made wonders live in poverty. This too seems somewhat likely to me.

My hope for the next 10 years is different from these though.

1. I hope that the United States learns from the ongoing mistakes of the current administration and backs off from personally justifed war and embraces global pollution controls.

2. I hope that the TeleInterActive Lifestyle becomes the norm rather than the exception. That anyone who wishes so, can access, manipulate, control and share their business and personal information and identities when they need it, wherever they are, using whatever device suits them.

3. I hope that such ability for distributed work does NOT lead to the Blish's future.

4. I hope that the promise of a global economy, started with the silk road and spice routes of over 2000 years ago, truly brings about an era of global peace and prosperity.

mke

A lot darker.

Both sociologically and literally.

I expect a dramatically accelerated downward path in mass-*; especially outputs consumed alone, with little second thought.

I suspect that those who have exhibited a (for us) archaic tendency to seek out limited, yet extremely strong social bonds will be leaders, not on the global scale that we dreamt of yesterday, but on a radically localised one.

If it isn't in response to policy/polity upheaval due to crises of lifestyle (including energy), it will certainly be a reaction to the increased abstraction of society and individual life/experience.

wilson ng

Ten years from now, I expect the world to be a much better place.

For the last 20 years, we have seen the impact of globalization and the advances of technology.

Everything points that life will become better, there will be less conflict, as nations open up, and the world gets more flat...

C Keene

There is only one prediction which is worth working to make happen, a prediction which Teilhard de Chardin made over 50 years ago:

"The day will come when, after harnessing the winds, the tides and gravitation, we shall harness for God the energies of Love. And on that day, for the second time in the history of the world, man will have discovered fire."

Niti Bhan

Philip K Dick wrote "Do Androids dream of Electric Sheep" not Blish. And for a really good look at the future, try " And the Sheep look up" by John Brunner.

As for the rest, suffice to say, that before I make any geopolitical forecasts, I'll wait till the world calms down a bit first.

Don

For thousands of years man has been able to better his lot through the use of increasingly dense sources of energy. Whithin the next ten years, the demand for the densest energy man knows, oil, will outstrip the planets ability to produce it. Sharply increasing energy prices will result with drastic consequenses. For more detailed info, google "Peak Oil".

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