ItSeemstoMe

Dr. Clark for President

Dr. Dean Clark is a name I know and trust. He’s been my dentist for over a dozen years. He’s credible, having done what he said he would do in the time he promised and at the budget he proposed. I’d like to see these attributes in our next president, but Dr. Dean Clark is not a candidate. Dr. Howard Dean is and so is Gen. Wesley Clark. Speculators say the Democratic ticket is likely to be Dean & Clark, rather than Dean Clark. This name-phreaking causes me to stumble in numerous, occasionally passionate, political discussions.

My position in this election is simple. I like all Democratic candidates better than I like George W. Bush and I like them all less than Dr. Dean Clark. I want to see George W. Bush defeated and I’ll take whomever the Democrats nominate. I’ve watched presidential candidates with interest since Truman vs. Dewey, and I think both the winning and losing candidates over all these years were better-suited to the presidency than the current incumbent. My problem is I doubt any of the hopefuls have a chance to win.

I’ve hesitated to publish my thoughts on this election. It seems to me there’s already too much talking and not enough listening. People want to persuade, not think through the myriad complex and vital issues we face. In politics, disagreement breeds contempt. If I see it differently than you, then I must be stupid or corrupt or both. I’m not certain these political times are different from earlier eras. Jefferson was alleged to have played dirty tricks on Adams and since then it seems candidates have focused on what’s wrong with the other guy rather than what vision they have for a better future. It seems to me that this country somehow survives it all. Our political system displays better integrity than most political candidates.

Watching the debates and reading as much as I can, I’ve developed a preference for John Edwards, but I think his real play comes later. I was all set to embrace Howard Dean a couple of weeks ago, then he stumbled in my eyes, by failing to acknowledge the relevance of Sadam Hussein’s capture. Gen. Wesley Clark has grown on me even if he can’t quite figure out whether or not he originally supported the Iraqi War. It seems to me, we should be more concerned with what these candidates will do moving forward, rather than what they have done. I’ll vote for the one of them who gets nominated.

I’m told by people who seem to me to be all-too-confident that they know the Democratic ticket will be Dean-Clark. This would be fine with me and will probably help my dentist’s business. But the current situation has begun to remind me of a harsh lesson of my youth. I was a McGovern worker in 1972. I went on the road for him, knocked on doors in Nebraska, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut, wrote a few “I’m-happy-to-be-here-with-the-people-of-Syracuse” speeches and proliferated a ridiculous number of press releases. I was stunned when Richard Nixon won by a landslide. I puzzled over it for years. Over time, I came to realize that people cast protest votes in primaries then turn to known quantities in the final election. I’ve met people who voted for Kennedy, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton. They're not quite sure why, often citing leadership. Personally, I think they voted for the names they most recognized, feeling they were the safest choices. Voters may disagree with Bush on most issues, but he remains the devil they know and that's the incumbent's advantage.

In my opinion, all the Democratic candidates are capable of healing the damage done inside the U.S. over the past four years and begin the longer, more daunting process of repairing the mess we've made of the rest of the world.

I hope I’m wrong about where this election is headed, but if I am, and people will turn to the untried for president, then I submit for your write-in consideration, the name of Dr. Dean Clark, dentist of Palo Alto.

12 Predictions for 2004

If years had breath, 2003's would bring a buffalo to its knees. Yet it’s been the best of the miserable Millennium so far, it seems to me. I’m so ready to be done with 2003 that I’m posting my 2004 forecasts early. I’ve looked into my wireless crystal PDA and I’ve seen the future. From where I sit, it looks like we are about to have a kinder, gentler, more prosperous year. I see:

1. Led by Intel, the microprocessor industry will report overall growth in 2004 exceeding 30 percent, surpassing traditional analyst forecasts by half-again. The segment will prove to be a first move in a broad, healthy and prolonged recovery lasting at least three years.

2. Stock prices will, as usual, exceed profit growth. The average technology share price will rise by 40 percent, igniting a new period of irrational exuberance.

3. Corporate consolidations will escalate. Most will prove to be mistakes over time. Apple Computer and Sony will discuss merger. The transaction will fizzle when ego and structure get overly entangled. Hewlett Packard will stumble as the side effects from ingesting Compaq become increasingly evident. Sun Microsystems will argue throughout 2004 that it isn’t about to die. It will succumb in mid-2005. Having staved off the oracular hordes, PeopleSoft will suffer from digestive problems with its own acquisition of JD Edwards. Siebel will be acquired for its cash reserves.

4. A wiser, leaner venture capital community will discover that all things needed have not already been invented after all. Remembering, at last, that invention is the purview of the start ups, VCs will begin pouring cash into early phase companies founded by veteran teams with fresh ideas.

5. Somewhere, a Web services application will interoperate across multiple platforms at multiple sites, supporting hundreds-perhaps thousands- of users.

6. Federal efforts to tax the Internet will get serious. The industry will express righteous indignation rather than take the fight into the lobbies and backrooms where it could be won. Market analysts will come under increased governance scrutiny regarding their endorsement practices. Traditional publications will turn increasingly to bloggers for independent, candid insight of products, companies and markets. A second jury will split after the prosecution fails to prove Frank had any friends.

7. A stellar Google IPO will see share prices triple in the first week out of the gate. This success will open a new window of tech IPOs opportunity.

8. Corporate marketing budgets will be reinvigorated, outsourcing at levels not seen in three years. Marketers will increase focus on building reputations and relationships with prospects and customers. Credibility will eclipse logo identification in marketing programs. Pop-ups and banners that move and make noises will decline as brand marketers finally figure out that, instead of acquiring or retaining customers, this stuff just pisses people off.

9. After a desperate effort to draft Hilary fails, George Bush will be re-elected. His second term will usher in an unprecedented period of domestic and international human right abuse. A special prosecutor will begin investigating the first term administration’s legal breaches and deliberate misinformation during the pre-Iraq buildup.

10. One of the 7462 experts who declared, at infinite points in the last 36 months, that the technology crash has hit bottom will be proven right.

11. Biotech will provide the most startling headlines of 2004, announcing a cure or effective preventative for something that kills millions. When it becomes available several years later, it will be too expensive for anyone but the very wealthy.

12. The Red Sox will beat the Cubs in the 8th inning of the 7th game in the World Series

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